Statistical Forecasting | Background to Probabilistic Forecasting
Statistical ForecastingBackground to Probabilistic Forecasting
The Inspiration behind the SenseAdapt forecasting
Troy Magennis has been influencing thought in this area for a while. He has spoken at many Kanban and Agile conferences about how the use of data to predict outcomes is both mathematically valid and a much better approach than traditional methods.
There are relevant articles on this on Troy’s site as well as this video.
The Monte Carlo Method is widely used in the financial sector, the Wikipedia entry is a good starting point to see its widespread application and acceptance as a predictive tool.